Recent relations between Russia and India ".
In a previous article, we have shown, how the new Russian doctrine of foreign policy prefers connection with Asia, and in particular, sad the President Vladimir Putin, the relations with China and India.
This did not make that a devout promise because, since July 2000, the young President of Russia took his pelgrin baton and, after his official visits to China, in Northern Korea and in Japan, he was sent to India for a visit of four days, from October, 2, till October, 5, 2000 which came to an end with the signature of the strategic agreement of partnership by the Indian Prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the President of Russia.
As it was noticed by the Indian expert, the gravitational centre of the world moves slowly, but relentlessly, from the Europe to the Asian zone - Pacifique Ocean. Four of present six bigger authorities, USA, Japan, China and Russia, are located on the circle of this ocean, and this tendency is going to amplify in the future, taking into account the average rythm of the expansion of the Indian and Chinese savings (about 5 % per one year on the average lisse for ten years), much above, than that of the Western Europe and USA. Nobody has forgotten with what speed, in the 50's and 60's, Japan has caught up the western countries on the economic plan, and has reached the conclusive rank of the second global economic power after USA. It is provide, that in 2020, six of seven nations or systems of the nations which will play a leading role in the world, will belong probably to this region : USA, China, Japan, India, Russia and Asia of South, uniting the Four Dragons (1).
In this classification, it is almost sure that India will be present on good account ; the specialized magazine "the Economist" provides, that if the rhythm of expansion is kept, the Indian economy will be the fourth of the world in 2020, and Lee Kuan Yew predicts to it even the third rank. Henceforth, 50 million of Indians benefit of an individual standard of living equal to the standard of living of the western Europeans and the Northern Americans. It is not enough for a country with more than 900 million inhabitants, but it represents already, in economic terms, the market of the same order of size that the French or English markets. It is provided, that in 2020, 400 million Asians will achieve this level, that makes the huge potential market surpassing in quantity and in price the North American market, and explains the very high rhythm of capital investment and expansion of the Asian savings taken in their common.
From its part, Russia - there is a tendecy to forget it in Europe - is an Asian power since already four and a half of centuries, as its pioneers reached the coast of Pacific ocean from the XVI-th century. The empire of Tsars was even a North American authority, when Alaska was Russian before being sold to USA in 1867 for several hundreds thousand dollars by a impecunious and thoughtless tsar, Alexander II. Vancouver, the big Canadian port on Pacific ocean, was based by a Russian naval officer.
In the present Russia, though four Asian republics of the former USSR have got the independance, on the common area of 17.000.000 km2, 59 % of territory, or 10.000.000 km2, are on the Asian continent, and 40 % of russian population, or 60 million inhabitants, live between Ural and Pacific ocean. We will note, that the long border between Russia and China is not more subject of any question, the to two authorities, liquidating the territorial question which opposed them in regions of river Amour and Khabarovsk by the contract signed May, 16, 1991, and ratified by the parliaments of two countries in 1994 (2).
Despite of the disintegration of Soviet Union, Russia, inside its present borders, covers, according to the most moderate projections, 35 % of global reserves of natural gas, 13 % of reserves of petroleum, and 12 % of coal reserves of the world. It makes annually between 330 and 350 million tons of petroleum, and 650 - 700 billion cubic metre of natural gas. The biggest petroliferous field of the world, which would cover 305 billion tons of possible reserves (now in an insignificant condition) settles down on its ground, in Siberia.
But mainly, Russian human potential makes the best advantage to the future of the country. In opinion of all experts, russian technicians use excellent formation, are highly tested, and may compete, by their creating ability, with those from the most advanced countries of the world, in particular in advanced industries such as space area, engineering, aircraft, nuclear talent, etc...
The biggest part of Russian power reserves is located on Siberia, huge region still very poorly occupied and which opportunities of development will follow an indicative curve if the financial position in Russia is restored enough to return trust to private national and foreign investors.
On the plan of internal structure - even if Russia is still a Federation, including about hundred nationalities - for the first time in four centuries, 80 % of its population is now of a slavic origin, which represents a guarantee of internal stability for the future. On the other hand, they ascertain from 1991 a returning in the country of thousands of staff of supreme technical education eparpilles in the nearby Republics, Caucasian or Asian, which makes a significant advantage to its future economic development, if they take as reference the returning of expatries during the English and French colonial Authorities disintegration in the sixtieth years. So, they consider, that 400.000 skilled russian staff have left the Central Asia between 1991 and 1997, and that in common, probably 20 % of the slavic population of this region could be repatriated to the native land (3). As it was noticed by the President Putin, we and our Indian partners should consider the fact, that the world has changed, Russia has changed, the balance of forces has changed, and so some of our priorities (4).
This Indian-Russian cooperation may be stipulated on three plans, military, economic and diplomatic :
On the military plan, the cooperation between the two countries is already old, as the USSR kep a dominant position among the main suppliers of arms of India before its disappearance in 1991. Almost 70 % of the Indian import of military equipment occured from Soviet Union. Practically all reserved units of a shock, and mechanized units of the Indian army, used the Soviet equipment. Deliveries of the Soviet arms have formed also an important part of field artillery, as well as the set of antiaircraft artillery including all arsenal of complete sets of ballistic missiles area/air (SAM). All squadrons of the Indian aircraft, except for seven, were equipped with various versions MIG or Ilyouchine. The most part of the ballistic missiles equipping submarines of attack of the Indian fleet came from the Soviet equipment.
Why India, big democracy as it is, leader of movement of Countries Non-Alined, has communicated so closely on the military plan with the leader of the communistic countries ? The answer is threefold. On the one hand, planes, carriages and Soviet a vessel represented an advantage of significant price in relation to the appropriate western equipment. Second, the term between the signature of the contract and delivery of arms was normally one year, in comparison with two or three years on behalf of Americans and French. Thirdly, contrary to the spacious nomenclature and contrary to volume of the Soviet military sale in India, the nature of the bilateral military relation between two countries was that of a limited association, more than a union, or than a connection of protector and client. India has also paid an all-round price for the disintegration of Soviet Union. The question of fournitures in spare parts became especially sharp for the fleet MIG-29 at the beginning of 1992. Though India has made some types of MIG under the license, it had no ability to give all the equipment and the required tools. A trip of the former Indian Minister of Defence Sharad Pawar to Moscow in September 1991 to try to receive spare parts was especially unsatisfactory. They advised to him to turn to Ukraine to find spare parts of military transport plane AN-32 and the plane anti-underwater military port Tupolev-142 M-ASW. At the end of visit of Pawar, it was agreeded, that Ukraine would give the Indian army in arms and in spare parts, instead of medicines and instead of clothes, periodic payments which had to be to be paid in hard currencies...
After that period of initial ambiguity, russian politicians have understood quickly, that India was potentially one of the best clients of Russia. In March 1992, Russia has offered nuclear submarines of class Charlie, planes MIG-23 and bombers SU-28. The interest of India was to resist to purchase of an armada of French American Mirage-2000 and of American F-16 by Pakistan. All the same, Russia demanded, that interest rates of credits were double in relation to the existing prices and that advance payment of 10 % was paid beforehand ! According to these draconian conditions, the maximal sum of crediting of 830 million dollars to buy this special equipement was open to India. (5).
Indo-Russian relations have learned meanwhile some phases of irritation, between others, in 1993 when, under the influence of American pressure, Russia denied its former obligation to give necessary technology for manufacturing engines cryogenic for its program of release of rockets for satellites Polar (PSLV). The whole India was shocked, and for it, it made an obvious mark of that they might not count more on the Russians, up to what degree they were sensitive to external pressure, and have lost the constitution of the big international power. India was so angry to learn that the Russian made the time offers to Pakistan for the sale of arms on a commercial base. This anxiety was meanwhile dissipee when the President Yeltsin guaranteed to India in 1993 that it would not give arms to Pakistan. Later on, India and Russia had various points of view as to the question of nuclear non-distribution. Russian government has brought its support by means of a zone denuclearisee in Asia of the sout, idea, which come toward the efforts of India to prevent such a regionalisation of the nuclear problem. As a matter of fact, how might India and Pakistan refuse on their own will the nuclear weapon, if China which has conquered Tibet, and put war to India not so long ago, and USA which used their nuclear bomb in the past only on the Asian population, keep their weapon ? For India, the problem of non-distribution is thus global, not regional.
Or, in 1995, in the report of Russian prospecting services, directed then by the future minister of Foreign Affairs Evgueni Primakov, it was declared, that India, Pakistan and Israel made the main source of threat of distribution of nuclear arms in the world, considering, that they had, in fact, all three the nuclear weapon, but refused to sign the Nuclear Contract about disarmament (NPT).
India and Russia have meanwhile learned to live with these irritating questions, and investigate the areas of a wider cooperation (6). The Indian-Russian military relations have learned some degree of stabilization with the agreements of the protection, signed by the two countries during the visit of the Indian Prime minister to Moscow in July 1994. Russia has agreed to help India to restore the 170 hunters MIG, so that to make them efficient up to XXI-st century. Especially important in the given question is the Indo-Russian Aviation Private Ltd company, joint venture created by India, with the capital of 400 million dollars, producing spare parts necessary for the reconstruction of military planes of Russian origin, working in India and in the countries of the Third world. Building projects of factories of reconstruction MIG-29, and the up to date of carriages T-72, were completed also subsequently. It was also stipulated that malayan pilots would come to be engaged in India on MIG-29, given to the Malayan Aircraft by the Malayan-Russian agreement of June 1994 ( 7 ).
Besides, the Prime minister adjoint of Russia Youri Yarov, during his trip to India in the summer 1994, has mentioned the opportunity to build a nuclear station of 2 000 MW in Kudankulam, Tamil Nadu, respecting the international agreements of guarantee in question of antiradiation protection, and has found ways to continue the cooperation in the field of space and nuclear science not breaking the existing international regims and agreements. The agreement was completed in July 1998, and concerned the construction by the Russians of two nuclear shares of 1.000 MW everyone in the station located in the south of India. The country has already eleven nuclear stations (8), and would wish to build six or eight new in the near future to resist to the growing energy needs of the Indian population, which is increased in the rhythm of 2,5 % per one year. Let's remind, that due to its own scientists, which high level is well know, especially in the question of pure mathematics, India has managed to seize the set of nuclear cycle, without the external scientific help, if it is not the formation received by its students at English, Canadian and American universities. Besides, it is necessary to emphasize, that the development of nuclear energy in India was not detained in the question on protection of the natural environment, cares which, seen by the Indian public opinion, seem a simple whim of the western spoilt children, while the Asian countries have uncountable mouths to feed, that created energy needs which must be first of all satisfied.
The Indo-Russian connections have existed since a big moment. India provides to make 70 % of its arms by its own the means in 2005. But, during the interreign, it would wish to restore the existing systems, to get details, components and the know-how searching for offers of coproduction. In these areas, India may again find out in Russia a reliable partner for the decade to come.
In December 1998, Russian Prime minister Evgueni Primakov was sent to India to meet his colleague Atal Behari Vajpayee and to renew for a term of ten years the Contract of Protection which connected two countries. India required persistently to modernize its armies. It wished to get 300 carriages T-90, and ten Russian submarines. It wanted to be supplied also with antimissile ballistic missiles - type Stars War - of Russian origin. From its part, Russia has offered to offer to India an aircraft carrier (Admiral Gortchkov) provided that India equippe with arms and planes. In total, according to the expert of strategic questions of New Delhi, this contract of protection would present 15 billion dollars for ten years (1999-2008). The renewal of this contract made bad news to the countries such, as France which hoped to break the Russian almost full monopoly in the field of fournitures of military material in India. So the firm Dassault which was in polemic for the sale of ten Mirage 2.000, entered in rivalry with Russian company which offered its planes of fight Sukkho 30. Also, the contract 1,1 of billion dollars for delivery of planes of training should come back to MIG-AT while France offered its Alpha-Jet (9).
Black holes in Indian Ocean.
In October 1999, the last of ten submarines in starting Diesel-electric, constructed for India, in the frame of the contract signed in 1997, removed from shipyards of Saint Petersburg. This release was christened validly in the West of the term of Black holes in Indian Ocean. It is necessary to know, that once the last key brought to this last submarine, the spring 2.000, the whole factory should be conceded to India which will construct its own submarines. This huge market of ten classical submarines, transferred by India with Russia, would cost to India, according to experts, approximately 1,5 billion dollars.
Simultaneously, at the International Fair of Arms of New Delhi, the Russian business concern Rosvooruzheniye, intermediary of Shipyards of Admiralty in the world market, represented the fourth generation of the submarines constructed in Saint Petersburg, l'Amour-1650, at the presence of the Indian Minister of Defence, George Fernandes. The construction of this new model had already began, and should be completed in 2001 or 2002. According to Gennadi Makarov, the general director adjoint of the Central bureau of the equipment of Fleet, this new submarine is constructed with a new steel type which has no any equivalent in the world, and includes the best characteristics of Russian submarines, namely, concealment limits (decrease in depth), high fighting capacity, and reliability. It will be equipped with last model of torpedos 91-RE-2 (10).
October, 3, 2000, the new President of Russia Vladimir Putin was meat in New Delhi, as the representative of the country considered as an ancient friend and a strong ally, despite of high and bottoms, lived since 1991. In the frame of the strategic agreement on partnership which the two countries have signed, it was decided to create an intergovernmental Commission on military technical cooperation over which two Ministers of Defence will supervise. Mister Brajesh Mishra, adviser for state security of the Indian Prime minister has specified, that the negotiations have proceeded for purchase by India of 310 carriages T90S for approximately 700 million dollars, an aircraft carrier Admiral Gorchkov, whose restoration by India will cost 750 million dollars, and for manufacturing under the license in India of the plane of fight of multi-role Sukho-30 MK. The mark of trust shown in relation to the ally, the President Putin, was invited the next day to visit in the company of some Russians scientists the Centre of nuclear researches Bhabha (BARC) in Trombay, near Bombay which makes the heart of the Indian nuclear research, military, as well as civil (11).
The second priority authorized by India and Russia during the visit of the President Putin is the development of their mutual trade which stands to 1,6 billion dollars on the average per one year, against 5,5 billion before the disappearance of the USSR. This sharp fall of exchanges in 1991-1992 is caused by the dispute concerning an exchange rate of exchange between Rupee and Rouble. Russia demanded a debt of 16 billion dollars while India considered, that it was obliged only 12 billion dollars. When Russia became a member of the World bank and the International currency fund, India considered, that its russian partner should apply since then the international rates of exchange, and also the special exchange rates of exchange condemned by it artificial, applied by the Soviet Union.
During the visit of the President Yeltsin in January 1993, a regulation was found : two countries have come to the agreement that 63 % of the debt of India to be compensated in 12 years, or up to 2005, in the interest rate of 2,4 %, being based on an exchange rate of 19,9 rupees for rouble, an established rate in January, 1-st, 1990. This represented a (discount) of the precise debt of 32 % to India. The remaining 37 % of the capital would be compensated for 45 years, or up to 2038, without interest, and in an exchange rate of 3,1 rupees to rouble, six times more favourable to India. The set of payment would be made under a kind of the Indian goods (12).
In August 1994, a commercial report identified new areas of cooperation between India and Russia, in the industry of aluminium, zinc and copper, researches and development in metallurgy of iron. Bilateral trade in iron and steel has increased also. So, the relations were took away with Leningradsky Metalworks, which stores 9 % of sectors of the global market in its area. During the wreck of the USSR, this company has stopped the deliveries of India. In middle of 1995, it negotiated for the contract with Orissa State Electricity Board for modernization of the electromain lines. Another company, International Consortium Mekor, joint venture of 11 Russian experts in the industry of paper weight, which is interested again in India (13).
In import of Russia, India comes meanwhile far beyond Germany, China, Italy, Japan, USA and France. Meanwhile, the question is of official statistics which do not return precisely the reality, because, taking into account the weight of procedures and the quantitative restrictions, imposed by russian authorities the majority of Indian businessmen prefer to export to Russia through the countries of the third world such, as Singapore or kingdoms of the Gulf where the trade is free from any obstacle.
During visit of the President of Putin to India in October 2000, it was thus decided to establish the intergovernmental commission to make active trade between two countries, and to try to facilitate the procedures. The President of Russia has ratified, that his country was ready to take part in development of the Indian infrastructure, in all areas. During a press conference, Brajesh Mishra, the adviser for state security of the Indian prime minister, has declared : "there is already, a cooperation in nuclear area, and the negotiations proceed".
The third stage of cooperation between India and Russia concerns foreign policy. The chief of Russian diplomacy, Igor Ivanov, has presented the new russian doctrine of foreign policy. Approved in June, 30, the President Putin, this text supports the multipolar world in relation to the domination of USA. The tendency to installation of the unipolar world with an economic and military domination of USA amplifies (...), and Russia will try to create a multipolar system in the international relations, specifies the text. The Russian diplomacy will support in need on the prospecting services, when the competence of diplomats will not be sufficient, has specified M. Ivanov during his press conference. In this context, Asia has a growing importance for Russia, in view of its geographical position and in view of the necessity to develop the regions of Siberia and the Extreme East, specifies the text, which emphasizes, that the relations with China and India are one of the major objectives of Russian foreign policy in Asia. Russia understands to strengthen its partnership with India which army, we have seen it, is equipped in 70 % of arms of the russian concept (14).
One of the main fields of cooperation between Russia and India might be the struggle against islamic movements in Asia. According to the new doctrine, the conflict in Afghanistan concerns directly the interests of Russia, which will prevent the export of the terrorism and of the extremism from this country. According to the russian diplomacy, this targets the islamic bases in Afghanistan where are engaged, according to it, the Chechen insurgents. Russia threatened in June with the start-up of preliminary pressing against these bases. From its part, India is always in struggle against moslems terrorists of Cashmere maintained, or at least, beared by the nearby Pakistan. According "Times of India", the President Putin has clearly decided to support the Indian authorities in their struggle against the acts of terrorism actions in Cashmere, actions which it has approached however to operation in Afghanistan and in provinces of the south of Russia. The Indo-Russian strategic partnership will take all sense, affirm the same newspaper if it may build the bases of a strategy of neutralization of terrorism of religious inspiration in the Central Asia, in Afghanistan, in Pakistan and in Cashmere and if is capable to bring the decision to the problem of drug traffic which is indissoluble (15).
To a strategic Inde-Chine-Russie triangle.
More widely, in relation to the unipolar world constrained by the overwhelming authority of USA which do not know more any contender not only on the economic plan, but as well in military and political areas, do not they slowly go to the strategic Inde-Chine-Russie triangle, only capable to compete to the superpower which wishes itself the mistress of the world ?
It is what are afraid of the american experts in the international affairs which have felt the marks of the cooperation increased between Russia, China and India, and the growing feeling in these three countries, specially after the campaign of bombardments of the NATO in Yugoslavia in the spring 1999, that the American power should in a way or in another be obliged in failure. Though these three countries are still very far from the uniting in the Eurasian anti-NATO Direction, these researchers refer to as concerned of the occurrence of a potentially very serious threat : the union which would unit approximately 2 and a half of billion person, a great military power and an impressing nuclear warehouse - as India is now officially a nuclear power - the cement of this coalition consisting in resisting to the general domination of America.
It would be a desaster for the USA.
If this fabric of relations progresses, has declared Charles William Maynes, president of the Eurasia Fondation, a tank think (16), based in Washington, then you will have a continental heart of the world (heartland) - 2 billion persons in China and in India - connected with the great technological power which is represented by Russia. It would be a desaster for the USA (17).
These three big nations have common interests, outside their shared indisposition concerning the American authority. They want a steady Central Asia, and are afraid of the impact of an active Islam. They are opposed to the new antimissile system (NMD) by which the USA want to be supplied, being considered as a rise of star war. They support vigorously the superiority of Security Council of the United Nations Organization to settle the crises, superiority, scorned by the NATO during its attack of Yugoslavia, begun without that the above mentioned Security Council be even consulted, by fear of the Russian and Chinese veto. They protect ardently the principle of non-interference in internal affairs of the sovereign states, a principle scorned in 1999, when NATO bombarded to stop the so-called ethnic cleaning of the part of the population of Kosovo, a simple province of Yugoslavia. So, this one is a sovereign country, member-founder of the United Nations Organization, and the most ancien co-leader with India of Movement of Countries Non-line up, in the time of Tito and the Prince of Peace Jawaharlal Nehru.
The Yugoslavian experience especially injured Russian, Chinese and Indian opinions. Moscow has seen the union which the Countries of the West asserted only defensive to turn suddenly to a crusade against the small external country to settle internal, however confusing conflict if it is judged by their present development. China, besides the threat against the principle of the sovereignty, has seen in May, 8 1999, the american bombers B-2 attacking the embassy in the Yugoslavian capital - legally international Chinese territory - and killing four young Chinese women - diplomats on night service, which added horror to the pure and simple nonsense. The Chinese military attache was himself badly wounded, as well as other thirteen members of the Chinese diplomatic corps. Considering, that the embassy was attacked by the ballistic missiles occuring from three various directions, we may ask on sincerity of the american official apologies. Whatever it is, this miss made suddenly very close for the hinese public opinion a conflict, removed however from 12.000 kms and which seemed concerned, in the eyes of the average chinese, only the small peripheral part of another continent. Let's remind, that China was the unique country to keep an air communication with Belgrade, and that thousands of Chinese were sent in Yugoslavia for the last few years, having created chinese mini-towns in suburbs of the capital.
In India, the opinion has also included a shade of intervention of the NATO in Kosovo. It is interested, if, under a kind of the humanitarian help, the USA do not go, under the same occasion, to try to interfere under a form or under another with Cashmere, territory ethnicly complex, in the Muslim majority, required by its neighbour Pakistan, ally of the USA. It may only ascertain, that the active Islam, maintained by America all over the world, namely in Afghanistan and in the Central Asia, is a constant threat for India. The recent destruction with the help of afghani Talibans of buddhist statues, miracles dating more than a millenium, and classified in the global property of UNESCO, is symbolical of this desire of the moslems to destroy any trace of islamic culture.
In time, Zbignew Brzezinsky, former adviser of the President, has clearly proved, that the purpose of the american foreign policy was to isolate Russia - always considered as a potential enemy, though becoming democratic - creating a new sanitary cordon around it, the american penetration into a soft belly of the asian continent : Caucasus on the one hand where Azerbajan, official candidate for an entrance in the NATO, makes a seductive extraction, in view of huge petroliferous reserves of Caspian sea, and the four Muslim republics of former Russian Turkestan, on the other hand. China is also taken into consideration, because some attempts of destabilization of Chinese independent region Xinjiang - which count an important Muslim population, the Ougours - were carried out by moslim fundamentalist movements. The Chinese government is convinced, that the Ughurs rebels are engaged in the camps located on Afghanistan (18).
In April 2000, Ouzbekistan, Tadjikistan, Kazakhstan and Kirghizistan have entered into an agreement with Russia to undertake a common action against the international terrorism. At the top of Douchanbe, July, 5, 2000, the Group Shanga has ratified the desire to begin the installation of the antiterrorist centre in Kirghizistan, boundary country of China, to struggle against the actions of fundamentalist moslems. We have seen, that India and Russia considered a common action against the terrorism of religious inspiration in Cashmere.
The strategic Russia-India-China triangle is thus to take slowly form. If the American diplomacy insists on the attempts to destabilize the Central Asia and Caucasus, it is more than probable, that this union will amplify. On the military plan, after the desaster in Vietnam, these three countries know that America will not tempt a frontal attack against the possible block of 2 and a half of billions inhabitants, as all the three are supplied with the nuclear weapon. We know the horrifying proof of the Chinese strategis : if, unfortunately, a nuclear war was begun against China, this would lose, at the beginning, from 200 to 300 million inhabitants, but would remain 700 million from those who would be since then the owners of the world for a long time.
Though it did never ascertain it, India which considers also about a billion inhabitants, might hold the same logic proof. According to the experts, it does not seem to have instantly, as much as we know, vectors of long reach, capable to let out the nuclear weapon against a purpose of another continent. But the high level of its scientists, and the distribution of an industrial infrastructure, allow to assume, that it will be one day capable to build them. Certainly, the Indian diplomacy has always supported, that India had only peace intentions, and that the nuclear weapon with which it was supplied, was defensive and of local use (protection against the nearby Pakistan, in presesnt also official posesor of the nuclear weapon). This nuclear ability should be taken meanwhile very much seriously by the American strategists. As to Russia since it has joined the camp of democracies, it declares that it does not have any enemy in the world, and offers to the USA, in the frame of negotiations START III, a gradual and mutual disarmament so that to return the number of strategic nuclear heads from 2.000 - 2.500, initially stipulated purpose to 1.000 -1.500. But it threatens at the same time, in case of infringement of the contract ABM - that is if the USA establish the board antimissile - to leave any system of restriction of strategic and even tactical armaments.
While it has accepted already very hardly the entrance in the NATO of Hungary and Poland, the expansion of the NATO in the Baltic countries and in Ukraine is unacceptable for it, because the question is of the former Soviet republics which have general border with Russia, and it will make all to prevent it.
Though under our notice the main conflict, in the present circumstances, was not discussed, all elements are incorporated thus for a new cold war, provoked by the aggression of the American foreign policy. The union which it has not provided between Russia, India and China, is capable to receive to it some troubles in the future, in border zones of crisis of the big blocks. For example, the unification of two Korea, actively searched by the Russian diplomacy, would mean logically a neutrality of uniform Korea, in other words, the evacuation of the numerous American bases established already since half-century in South Korea. Besides the insult, what it would create for the prestige of America, what fault line would accept then the American army ? Taking into account the present decision in question of foreign policy, it is very improbable, that Japan would agree to accept these foreign bases. This would thus involve, for the American army, a decrease on its first lines in Asia from 1.200 kms (Okinawa) up to 2.000 kms (Philippines), and its full withdrawal of the Asian continent. On the other hand, after the compensation of Hong Kong, unit of Taiwan - which has no any place in the United Nations, and which character of Chinese province nobody denies - is required openly by the government of Peking. Is America ready to an open war to protect this island of about 20 million inhabitants, of especially brilliant economic parameters ? But those of the enclave of Hong Kong was they not such up to its reocupation by China ?
In the Central Asia, a whole series of conflicts is presumable, if America insists in its policy of gain of the petroleum markets, and of supports without deduction of islamic fundamentalists. So, we have seen, that the union between Russia, India and China risks to turn against the USA, and that these three big countries are well solved to eradicate the active islam of this region, in Cashmere, as well as in Xinjiang and in Tadjikistan. Though Russia is not ready at once to interfere again with the Afghan quagmire, they may be afraid of the conflicts limited in border zones which risk to start a new war with Pakistan, maintained and armed by the USA...
More shortly, the aggression of the American foreign policy, such as it have been seen in action in Afghanistan and in Kosovo, and their refusal to include Russia in the new European set, is going to cause most likely its own antidote, namely the formation of a new eurasiatic block formed by Russia, India and China, provoking a whole series of local conflicts on periphery of the Asian continent.